Long Range Forecast

NEPA Long Range Forecast
valid September 23rd - October 2nd, 2017
Issued 23SEPT2017

Confidence Color Code
Low | Moderate | High | Very High

Temperature Anomaly:

    • September 23-29
      Well Above Normal (10-15° above)
      Confidence: Very High

      Above: Strong ridge has a stranglehold over most of the eastern United States. Allowing a stronger southerly flow which is responsible for the well above normal temperatures and humidity. 
    • September 29 - 30
      Near Normal (+/- 1-5°)
      Confidence: High 
    • September 30 - October 2
      Below Normal ( - 5-10°)
      Confidence: High

      Above: As shown in the image showing Sept 29-30, the deep trough that will not only kick Maria out into the Atlantic not affecting our weather here will also usher in far more fall like temperatures. It would not be surprising for some isolated places along the northern tier to have frost.
    • October 3 - 7
      Above Normal (5-10°)
      Confidence: Moderate
      Above: Following our brush with much colder temperatures, the upper air patterns will begin to moderate as they begin the seasonal transition. During this period temperature volatility may occur with periods of above and periods of below normal temperatures. This will eventually subside as the patterns settle in. 

Precipitation:

  • September 28
    Approaching cold front, possible showers/thunderstorms
    Confidence: Moderate

    Above: The approaching trough with associated cold front will likely have prefrontal shower/thunderstorm activity. Due to the high temperature gradient it should be noted that these storms maybe severe. As time moves forward we will need to follow the handling of the front for any possible severe weather. 
  • September 30
    Interaction between exiting Tropical Cyclone Maria and large Upper Level Low in Canada, possible shower bands.
    Confidence: Low

    Above: As Maria exits from its boot by the trough a strong upper level low that will bring Canada some snow showers may be enhanced by Maria. It is possible for our area to see some backend rain. 

Long Range Forecast will be updated weekly on Saturdays. The forecasts will be valid for the upcoming 14 days. 

METEOROLOGIST:
MAUGER
23SEPT2017
1320z

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