FINAL CALL: Winter Storm Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning (11/15-11/16)

FINAL CALL: Winter Storm Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning (11/15-11/16)


Above: ECMWF shown at 1am Friday Morning

Changes to First Call:

As we have dissected the data from this morning and afternoon, we are beginning to see better picture with this system. Which in our opinion will increase snow totals across the region and lower the icing potential slightly. We have kept our totals lower than model projections because we still due expect warm air advection to still occur (Warm in the mid levels of the atmosphere and a below freezing surface will be conducive for sleet and freezing rain mid way through the storm.)

Our main reason for this change of thinking is due to what's called "Cold Air Damming". This means cold air at the surface will be stuck in place for longer than expected.


Above: GFS Shown at 7pm Thursday showing cold are at the surface will remain below freezing.

Timing:

Start - 11am - 12pm as light snow.

Wintry Mix Change over - 4pm-5pm

Change back to heavy snow - 4am-6am Friday

Ending: 10am-11am Friday

FINAL CALL Snow Fall Totals:

(Use Google Maps to zoom into your area, Click on your area for information to popup.)

Impacts:

- Hazardous travel especially during Thursday over night and Friday morning.
- Expect School Closings/Delays
- Heavier snow mixed with icing can cause downed tree limbs/power-lines.

Manny will be live at 5:30pm today (Wednesday) to go over this forecast for you.

METEOROLOGIST(S)
MAUGER/MIHALOS/EPPLER
14NOV2018
1730z

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