FIRST CALL: Super Bowl Sunday/Monday Winter Storm (Feb 4-5)

FIRST CALL: Super Bowl Sunday/Monday Winter Storm (Feb 4-5)


Above: GOES-16 Current Visible Satellite

The frontal system that brought our area some nuisance snow last night into the morning has now exited off shore. Our temperatures have fallen pretty significantly as expected with the passage of the cold front. As for other pseudo weather news, the Chief Meteorologist Punxsutawney Phil PhD gave his prediction, 6 more weeks of winter... He must have emerged at just the right time as there are plenty of scattered clouds! Well, he is probably right with his thinking...

Observations:


Above: Global Water Vapor. Circled: Shortwave and storm energy. Arrow: Polar Jet

Our pieces of energy are visible and have been booted from the Pacific. Both the Polar jet shortwave which will allow our storm to lift into the Northeast and the Pacific energy which will develop into our storm system. Now we get to compare observations to guidance for a better idea on what to expect. Let us remind you, precipitation totals are often times skewed and while we have a good idea there are still some pieces guidance doesn't pick up on and why we are issuing a second and final call.

Guidance:


Above: 500mb upper air vorticity (energy) late Sunday night.

Not much has changed from yesterday's upper air pattern. We have our pieces. The shortwave and storm (circle and square) are readying to phase. Would still like to see the shortwave dig further south if you want big snows, but there is some more time for adjustments. We aren't ruling that out just yet.


Above: 500mb upper air vorticity (energy) East coast view.

Zooming in a bit and looking at very early Monday morning (after midnight) we see our trough axis has gone negative. Now all of the energy can 'round the bend at the base of the trough giving the storm its kick to the coast.


Above: ECMWF Ensemble members Low pressure cyclone locations.

Comparing both the upper air pattern at the same time (12am Monday) you can see how the negative trough axis lets the energy wrap around the axis. With the ensembles showing a good idea where there low pressure cyclone will be at that time. Another tip, guidance has been suppressing the North Atlantic high quickly and its strong at 1046mb. Take that with a grain of salt as we don't think that high will collapse as fast which makes higher snowfall numbers very possible as we get closer to the final call.

FIRST CALL Timing and Snow Fall Totals:

Timing:

Start: Sunday evening, heaviest being late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
End: Monday afternoon.

Snow Fall Totals:

(Click the color coded area for you areas snow totals. Zoom in if needed)

Summary:
Do not get caught up in snowfall totals and model snowfall maps just yet as there is still time for adjustments which we do believe there will need to be. Observational data is always key for events like this and its why we are considering our first call to be an "at least".  Again, due to the timing (which has been the trend this year) with it being Super Bowl Sunday and a lot of folks at parties etc its imperative we give everyone this data when it comes in. Continue to check back for the latest updates. 

SECOND CALL: Tomorrow (Saturday) Morning
FINAL CALL: Tomorrow (Saturday) Evening

Eric will have live streams starting tomorrow. 

METEOROLOGIST(S)
MAUGER/EPPLER/MIHALOS
2FEB2018
1654z

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