UPDATE: May 1, 2017 Severe Threat Analysis

UPDATE: May 1, 2017 Severe Threat Analysis


As we expected due to the atmospheric dynamics becoming more unstable which we alluded to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has expanded the "Enhanced" and "Slight" risk outlook for severe weather.

Synopsis:
The very strong low pressure system is moving towards the Great Lakes region as we forecast. We are beginning to see increasingly strong lines of thunderstorms beginning to form on ahead of the associated cold front. Strong south easterly winds will begin to push into NEPA as a warm front quickly move to the north and east. After the warm front lifts out of the region rapid temperature increases are expected to occur between 2-5°F per hour before topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the region. Sun will begin to peak through the cloud cover over NEPA which will aide in destabilizing the atmosphere further. 

Timing:
West of I-81 between 4pm-10pm
East of I-81 between 6pm - Midnight

Impacts:
The western fringes of our coverage area to include Columbia, Sullivan, Bradford, Montour, Northumberland will have the highest probability for severe thunderstorms.
Counties that include the Wyoming Valley, Lackawanna River Valley and east into the Poconos will still have a significant probability for severe weather, however due to the timing of the system day time heating will be diminishing therefore the chance for some storms to weaken is very possible.

Threats:

- Significant risk of strong straight line winds with speeds upwards of 60+mph.
- Frequent lighting
- Torrential rainfall
- Quarter-sized hail primarily for the western counties
- Possible isolated EF0-EF2 tornado embedded 

Our biggest concern is the straight line wind damage. Expectations are downed power lines, power outages, and tree damage. Traveling through these storms this evening will be extremely dangerous. 

Watches/Warnings:
Currently there are no watches and/or warning at this time.
Our expectation is as the afternoon moves on we should expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. 

-WVPAW Team
1 MAY 2017 1746z

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